Ethereum 300% Surge in 2024: Why Bitcoin is Still Outperforming ETH
Ethereum (ETH), despite a remarkable 300% surge from its 2022 low of $880, continues to trail behind Bitcoin (BTC) in this current market cycle. Data from Glassnode reveals that the ETH/BTC ratio has been in steady decline since mid-2022, highlighting Bitcoin’s dominance in this cycle.
As of February 2, 2025, Ethereum trades at $3,107, but questions arise regarding its inability to maintain pace with Bitcoin, which continues to widen the gap despite its bullish fundamentals.
Bitcoin’s Dominance: A 2.5-Year Streak
Bitcoin’s institutional momentum has been a major factor in this divergence. With the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin gained a significant regulatory advantage, giving it a six-month head start over Ethereum’s pending ETF applications. This regulatory push helped Bitcoin post a 160% rally in 2024, far surpassing Ethereum’s 90% rise during the same period.
The continued ETH/BTC ratio decline over 30 consecutive months suggests Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum, largely due to Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage and its growing institutional adoption. There’s even speculation about Bitcoin’s possible inclusion on the U.S. government’s balance sheet, further solidifying its position.
Ethereum’s Quiet Strengths: Dominating DeFi
Despite Bitcoin’s dominance, Ethereum retains substantial strengths. Ethereum is the backbone of decentralized finance (DeFi), hosting 58% of the total blockchain Total Value Locked (TVL), amounting to $43 billion, according to analyst @puntium. The Ethereum network also supports key applications such as stablecoins, NFTs, meme coins, and layer-2 scaling solutions.
However, Ethereum faces increasing competition from networks like Solana and Avalanche, which have gained traction in areas such as fees, staking, and use cases. If Ethereum is to recover its relative dominance, it will likely require partnerships between the public and private sectors, especially in regions like the U.S., where regulatory clarity is still lagging behind Bitcoin’s progress.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Critical Levels to Watch
As Ethereum grapples with institutional competition, it faces immediate technical hurdles. On February 2, Ethereum saw a brief 4% dip to $3,068 before recovering back to $3,107. According to crypto trader Cas Abbé, Ethereum must reclaim $3,400 to confirm a bullish reversal towards $4,000.
The 100-day moving average ($3,300) and the upper boundary of a bullish flag ($3,400) represent a critical resistance zone for Ethereum. A breakout above $3,240 could lead to significant liquidations of short positions, potentially triggering Ethereum’s price to move higher.
However, Ethereum’s failure to hold the $3,500 level on February 1 raises concerns of a false breakout. According to Binance liquidation heatmaps, a concentration of short positions near $3,500 could prompt a retracement, with Ethereum possibly testing $3,000 support if momentum remains weak.
Ethereum’s Outlook: Real-World Adoption Needed for Growth
Despite its impressive 300% rebound from its 2022 cycle low, Ethereum’s continued underperformance relative to Bitcoin can be largely attributed to the ETF-driven rally and institutional momentum surrounding Bitcoin. For Ethereum to reverse this trend, analysts emphasize that real-world adoption—beyond its dominance in DeFi—is crucial.
The ETH/BTC ratio’s downward trajectory suggests that even as Ethereum thrives in decentralized finance, it may continue to lag behind Bitcoin unless significant shifts occur in regulatory environments and real-world use cases. Investors may find themselves testing their patience as they wait for Ethereum’s next big move.
